Mohammed Bin Salman's oil gamble at the time of pandemic

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There's no better moment to launch a war than during an health crisis. I don't say it ironically, is a war strategy. Your opponent is weaker and will tend to focus less on external threats. The problem is when you're hit by the same health crisis. If i have to write what's bad in OPEC, a rigged cartel, i have to write a book. Every deal is hijacked by cheating, the russian petroleum industry have always used the frosty climate as an excuse (no doubt it's a problem but isn't insurmountable). Was the oil price war inevitable? Sorry to disappoint you but the answer is yes. Saudi Arabia fears the booming u.s shale industry as Russia does, so why pushing for extreme cuts that would open the way for more market shares' loss at the advantage of the shale? There are 2 answers: 1) making money short term; 2) geopolitics. The new OPEC+ had a massive flaw: the world's first oil producer (and other little producers) weren't part of.
CEO of Rosneft Igor Sechin lobbied for not bowing down arguing, among many things, that very low prices will bankrupt the shale industry (it needs  >$40 to profit). Fair enough. The problem is the timing: the Coronavirus pandemic sank the demand. The saudi revenge sank the Brent under $20 and the WTI at $10 a barrel. For Saudi Aramco the timing was also bad: it was amidst an IPO. The russian budget to be balanced needs oil at $40 while the saudi budget at $80, so Russia had the upper hand. Beware of miscalculations: oil for OPEC+ observers is a sectorial interest while all OPEC+ members are petrostates.
The good news for them was that shale companies started to fall like mosquitoes, Sanchez Energy the first in chronological order. Don't tell to saudi royal or they will buy it and suddently they will be interested in keeping the shale healthy. The White House at first claimed that there wasn't better moment to buy and store as much oil as possibile but then, under pressure from Texas producers, made a u-turn and started the «telephone diplomacy» to convince Russia and Saudi Arabia to strike a deal. They, in turn, asked the USA to be part of. The Texas Railroad Commission reluctanty accepted to be part of future cuts but made no guarantees. G20 mobilized in promoting it.
Why many countries are braggart towards especially Russia? Because they take refuge under the ass of the «empire». They actually don't count for shit.
The empire, by the way, perceived the conspiracy. Republican senators, angry at Mohammed Bin Salman, threatened to review all the existing cooperations if he didn't stop, potentially putting at risk the founding agreement that created the petrodollar. Don't worry, the u.s-saudi special relationship isn't (yet) in danger. Rosneft's systemic importance for global supply has shielded it from tough sanctions even during the Ukraine standoff, hence why Sechin's position was clever. Instead the Kremlin, reclutant for no reason to use the NWF, gave up. "I would cite an example of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk when due to various reasons the bolsheviks had to cut a humiliating deal with Germany in 1918", argued Lukoil's Leonid Fedun.
How is going on the war? In the chinese stage, russian producers are thriving: +31% march 2019/2020 against saudi exports -1.8%. Who doesn't love a neighbor full of cheap oil? Apparently europeans, in fact russian producers were already struggling with contamination at Druzhba pipeline. There's oviously geopolitics on both stages. The outcome of the oil price war won't be decided in the european stage but in the asian one. So far, MBS isn't winning.

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